Conclusions:
- Waymo is vastly safer than human drivers, with effectively no uncertainty. It's about 11x better for at-fault crashes and far safer still for at-fault injuries. The conclusions for Waymo are highly robust to various pessimistic assumptions we could make. And of course Waymo has caused zero fatalities in over 300 million miles as of October 2026. So literally a Waymo could kill someone tomorrow and it would not change the assessment here.
- Tesla robotaxis are probably safer than humans, but there isn't enough data for the robotaxis specifically to be sure.
More broadly, I'm convinced that certain versions of Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" in certain ideal conditions are superhumanly safe.
I predict, as of mid 2026, that as more robotaxi data comes in, we'll be able to pin down Tesla's safety numbers strictly between human level and Waymo level.
- Zoox is probably fine. I wouldn't have qualms about riding in one.
Discussed endlessly at
AGI Friday