Teslapologetics Companion App AKA Robotaxi Reality Check

What we know:
  1. Waymo is over 10 times safer than human drivers, with no uncertainty.
  2. Tesla robotaxis are probably safer than humans, but there isn't enough data for the robotaxis specifically to be sure. Based on other data I'm convinced that certain versions of Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" in certain conditions are superhumanly safe.
  3. Zoox is probably fine. I wouldn't have qualms about riding in one.

Discussed endlessly at AGI Friday

What and when to compare

Vehicle Miles Traveled

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Company Date Location Crash with Speed (mph) Fault Severity Narrative

Prediction Markets

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Sources and raw numbers

Sources, sanity checks, and sensitivity analysis

AV company growth and forecast for Jan 1, 2027